Portugal was widely expected to buy the American F-35 stealth fighter. Now, French-made Rafales are suddenly edging ahead, raising political, economic and military questions far beyond Lisbon.
A contract that goes far beyond Portugal
On paper, this is a classic fleet renewal. Portugal’s ageing F-16MLU Fighting Falcons need to be replaced, and fast. The government wants a modern, multirole aircraft that fits with NATO commitments and doesn’t blow up the defence budget.
For months, the answer seemed obvious: the Lockheed Martin F-35A, already the de facto standard fighter across much of the alliance and familiar to the Portuguese Air Force, which operates US-built jets today.
In May 2025, the Portuguese Air Force chief of staff, General Cartaxo Alves, even stated that “Portugal has no other choice than to acquire the F-35”, arguing that the Rafale was less advanced technologically. That sounded final.
Yet despite those strong words, Lisbon is now seriously reassessing the Rafale, putting France in pole position for what could become its fourth European Rafale contract.
If confirmed, the decision would send a signal to both Washington and European capitals: US hardware no longer has automatic priority inside NATO, especially when cost and sovereignty are on the table.
Why Portugal is rethinking the F-35
Cost pressure and long-term bills
The F-35 is widely seen as a cutting-edge sensor and stealth platform, but it comes with hefty acquisition and operating costs. For a mid-sized economy like Portugal, the lifetime bill matters as much as the shiny tech.
The Rafale, while not a stealth fighter in the same way, is known for lower maintenance requirements and fuel consumption. That difference runs over decades.
- Lower operating costs per flight hour for Rafale
- Less complex maintenance infrastructure
- More predictable upgrade path, controlled by France
In the tight world of defence budgets, a cheaper aircraft to fly can free money for drones, air defence systems or naval assets. That flexibility appeals to politicians who must sell the deal not just to generals, but to taxpayers.
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ITAR-free: the sovereignty argument
Another key factor is three short letters: ITAR. The Rafale is marketed as “ITAR-free”, meaning its critical systems and components are not subject to US International Traffic in Arms Regulations.
Under ITAR, Washington can veto or restrict the export, modification or integration of US-made systems, even years after a sale. That can affect weapons, software, and even upgrades on aircraft like the F-35.
Choosing an ITAR-free fighter means Lisbon keeps more control over how the jet is used, what weapons it can carry, and who it can be sold or transferred to in future.
For a NATO country that still wants strategic room to manoeuvre, this kind of autonomy has clear appeal. It also reduces the risk of political friction, such as disagreements over future arms exports or operations.
Trump, NATO tensions and strategic mood swings
Lisbon’s rethink does not occur in a vacuum. Portuguese politicians watched closely when Donald Trump repeatedly questioned US commitment to NATO, especially toward members not spending enough on defence.
Those comments rattled several European governments. Some began asking whether relying too heavily on US hardware could translate into future political pressure or conditions.
The idea of diversifying suppliers – and backing a European industrial champion – now sounds less ideological and more pragmatic. If a future US administration again signals conditional support, owning a fully European aircraft could feel like an insurance policy.
Rafale’s quiet European winning streak
If Portugal picks the Rafale, it would mark another European success for Dassault Aviation after recent contracts with Greece, Croatia and Serbia.
| Country | Status | Reason often cited |
|---|---|---|
| Greece | Ordered Rafale | Rapid capability boost in Eastern Mediterranean |
| Croatia | Ordered Rafale | Cost-effective upgrade from MiG-21s |
| Serbia | Signed contract | Modernisation and political signalling toward EU |
| Portugal | Decision pending | Cost, sovereignty, industrial ties with France |
Each deal strengthens the Rafale’s footprint in Europe, creating potential synergies in training, maintenance, spare parts and upgrades. That network effect is becoming a selling point on its own.
For France, a Portuguese contract would be more than a sale; it would deepen a pan-European ecosystem around Rafale at the expense of the US-led F-35 club.
Why the F-35 still has powerful cards
Washington and Lockheed Martin are not about to quietly surrender a NATO customer. The F-35 remains embedded in alliance planning and logistics, with many members already committed: the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Poland and others.
Buying F-35s makes integration with those partners easier, from data-sharing to joint exercises. It sends a strong political message of alignment with US strategic thinking. In blunt terms, choosing the F-35 can be a way to stay in Washington’s good books.
Lisbon’s military establishment also knows the F-16/F-35 transition path is well tested. Pilot training, weapons compatibility and doctrine all align with existing NATO models.
If Portugal sticks with its earlier line and opts for F-35s, it will be rewarded with seamless integration into a growing network of F-35 operators and closer operational ties to the US Air Force.
A Swedish wildcard: Saab’s Gripen enters late
Just as the Rafale–F-35 showdown became serious, another player slipped onto the pitch: Saab’s JAS 39E Gripen. According to Portuguese outlet PoderAéreo, citing local business press, Lisbon is now also looking at the Swedish jet.
The Gripen E is usually cheaper to buy and operate than both Rafale and F-35. It is designed for small air forces with limited budgets and has a reputation for simplicity and resilience.
That could tempt policymakers who want to modernise without locking in very high running costs. Yet it also complicates the calculus: the cheaper option might not bring the same political or industrial benefits as a French or American deal.
Beyond jets: drones, SCAF and industrial partnerships
Whichever fighter Portugal selects, the contract will likely be bundled with broader defence cooperation.
If Lisbon leans toward France, discussions could extend to unmanned systems, training centres or participation in future projects. One name already circulating is SCAF (Future Combat Air System), the Franco–German–Spanish programme to develop a next-generation European combat aircraft and its supporting “system of systems”.
A Rafale sale could become Portugal’s ticket into future European defence projects, offering access to technology, industrial workshare and political influence.
The US, for its part, can offer deep integration into its own ecosystem: access to American weapons, joint training, and potential industrial offsets in aerospace and defence manufacturing.
Key concepts that shape the choice
Two ideas sit quietly behind the headlines: interoperability and sovereignty.
Interoperability means how smoothly different forces can work together. Shared aircraft types, compatible weapons and common data systems make multinational missions far easier. The F-35 is built around this concept inside NATO. Rafale and Gripen can integrate too, but not always in exactly the same way or with the same level of shared software environment.
Sovereignty refers to a country’s ability to decide how, when and with whom it uses its weapons. An ITAR-free jet such as the Rafale gives more freedom over exports, upgrades and missions without seeking US approval. For some governments, that extra control outweighs the advantages of being part of the F-35 club.
What this could mean for other small and mid-sized air forces
Portugal’s hesitation offers a live case study for other nations sitting on the fence. Picture a smaller NATO member with tight budgets, worried by shifting US politics and looking for industrial work at home. The Rafale model – European, ITAR-free, lower operating costs – starts to look appealing.
Yet another state, feeling a direct threat from Russia or seeking maximum reassurance from Washington, may still see the F-35 as the safer political bet, even if it stretches the budget. That trade-off between political alignment, cost and autonomy is likely to define several upcoming fighter competitions, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East.
For now, Lisbon’s final signature is still missing. But the mere fact that a decision once described as having “no other choice” is now wide open sends a clear signal: in European skies, the battle between Rafale, F-35 and Gripen is only getting started.